Forecast Errors

Economists, Pollsters, Futurists…there’s certainly no shortage of ‘experts’ ready to predict the future in confident and unambiguous tones.
But why do they often get it so terribly wrong?

When we look back in the past, whatever it is, be it our own experiences, the GFC, or whatever, we rationalise that whatever the thing was that happened was always going to happen. Like it was somehow inevitable.

With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to tell a cohesive, rational explanation of what happened and if only we had used common sense, this thing could have been avoided.

But when we’re in the present moment living our complicated lives and looking ahead, the answer is not so clear as uncertainty prevails.


In other words, we’re really deceiving ourselves into believing we understand something that in fact we don’t.

The media are more likely to give airtime to forecasters that are certain and decisive. The pundits that hedge or provide a more circumspect answer are often overlooked by the media.

One thing you can be certain of
Forecasting is a mugs game



Which Bank Con?
Comm Bank Con

Can Con


Be sure to check out my opinion and appraisal of The GFC

What caused the GFC? I’ve created an Excel Workbook that contains a number of worksheets to help make sense of the hysteria.

Download the Excel workbook and "Enable Macros" to make use of the hyperlinks. 

Goto: The Global Financial Con 

Behavioural Finance

We suffer more when we go from a better to worse situation than we enjoy when we go from a worse to a better situation”

Source: Behavioural Finance discussion on Radio National 4th April 2013

Switch Bank


planetBudge Advertising respond to the 2012 “Can’t” Commonwealth Bank campaign with our own Can story
It’s called Switch Bank. 


Switch Bank


Can’t…take it anymore?

Cunt….feel like something’s missing?

Count…you “o” it to yourself

Country…Australia’s first bank

Can…Switch back to the future

Can….no missing letters

Can….make it count

Can….Switch back

Switch Bank. Westpac.

It all adds up

Written and Copyrighted by Adrian Payne at planetBudge

The Economist

There are 2 types of Economist:

“…those that don’t know and
those that don’t know they don’t know”

They use statistics as a drunken man uses lamp posts…for support rather than illumination