Vatican Vote Yes

Smoke Signals in the Vatican
It’s the dawn of a new era

Pope Benedict vacates the top job 
Gay Marriage endorsed by the Church  

Smoke Signals

 

 

 

 

After days of deliberation. indecision and Grey Smoke
The Vatican announce to the world via a White Smoke signal
They’ve chosen the successor to Pope Benedict

But they drew the line at embracing Gay Marriage
That was a bridge too far

So God got involved and sent his message
The Rainbow said Yes to Marriage Equality

Rainbow Signal

Heavens above
What’s next
Female priests at the Tabernacle?

aP

Men of War

Complete the last item on this list

  • Alexander the Great
  • Attila the Hun
  • Ivan the Terrible
  • Robert the Bruce
  • Adolf the


aP

Forecast Errors

Economists, Pollsters, Futurists…there’s certainly no shortage of ‘experts’ ready to predict the future in confident and unambiguous tones.
But why do they often get it so terribly wrong?

When we look back in the past, whatever it is, be it our own experiences, the GFC, or whatever, we rationalise that whatever the thing was that happened was always going to happen. Like it was somehow inevitable.

With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to tell a cohesive, rational explanation of what happened and if only we had used common sense, this thing could have been avoided.

But when we’re in the present moment living our complicated lives and looking ahead, the answer is not so clear as uncertainty prevails.

forecast-mugs

In other words, we’re really deceiving ourselves into believing we understand something that in fact we don’t.

The media are more likely to give airtime to forecasters that are certain and decisive. The pundits that hedge or provide a more circumspect answer are often overlooked by the media.

One thing you can be certain of
Forecasting is a mugs game

aP